BAKING AND DESSERT MIXES-US-FEBRUARY 2018

BAKING AND DESSERT MIXES-US-FEBRUARY 2018

Feb 2018 Mintel FoodN/A Price :
$ 3995
The market for baking and dessert mixes is a large one, valued at nearly $4 billion. However, it continues to shrink, following a pattern that has endured for much of the past decade. That lack of growth is not necessarily the result of consumer dissatisfaction, but it is resulting more from a consumer interest in options that are even more convenient and easy namely, options from stand-alone and in-store bakeries.
Table of contents
OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Shrinking household size affecting one of the categorys key demographics: families
Weak category penetration and frequency
Figure 1: Usage, November 2017
Even users are using mixes less than a year ago
Figure 2: Change in usage, November 2017
Familiarity proves a notable influence
Figure 3: Purchase influence, November 2017
The opportunities
Leveraging interest in from-scratch baking
Figure 4: Reasons for not using, November 2017
Mix users cite flavor and quality behind their choice
Figure 5: Important attributes, November 2017
Leveraging the familiar
What it means
THE MARKET WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Baking/dessert mix sales struggle
Baking supplies hold greatest market share
Competition leverages greater degrees of convenience and ease
Traditional category user base shrinking
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category braced for further declines
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Baking supplies command largest market share
Figure 8: Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, 2017
Bread/cookie mix sales fall steadily
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
Cake mix sales plummet, though losses will slow
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
Flat pancake mix sales should rebound
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
Falling frosting sales
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of frosting, at current prices, 2012-22
Baking supply sales steady, but stagnant
Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking supplies, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
In-store bakeries to see sales increases
Figure 14: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
Focus on health, particularly among Millennials
Figure 15: Attitudes toward food, by generation, April 2017
MARKET FACTORS
Household sizes slowly shrinking
Figure 16: US households, by percentage of total US households, 1960-2017
Rising disposable income could lead to more fresh-baked interest
Figure 17: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-November 2017
KEY PLAYERS WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Some successes amid an overall sales slump
Price deterring some from frosting launches
Leveraging familiar
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF BAKING AND DESSERT MIXES
Sales slump hitting categorys major brands
Sales of baking and desserts mixes by company
Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of baking and dessert mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHATS WORKING?
Brownies biggest success shows the benefit of leveraging decadence
Figure 19: Duncan Hines Decadent line, 2017
Figure 20: Consumer attribute ratings for the Duncan Hines Decadent line, 2017
WHATS STRUGGLING?
Icing/frosting sales falter
Figure 21: Notable frosting launches, 2017
WHATS NEXT?
Leveraging familiarity
THE CONSUMER WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Mix users skew younger
More consumers do not use mixes at all than are using them more than a year ago
Flavor remains paramount
Nonusers not avoiding baked goods
Potential in leveraging customizability
Consumers embrace the familiar in baking mixes
Younger consumers like baking
Clean-up and lack of equipment may hinder usage
Users tend to use multiple types of mixes
USAGES OF BAKING AND DESSERT MIXES
Brownie, cake mixes most used, but almost a third of consumers are not using baking mixes
Figure 22: Usage, November 2017
Younger consumers much more likely to use mixes
Figure 23: Usage, by age, November 2017
Presence and number of children correlate strongly with mix use
Figure 24: Usage, by number of children in household, November 2017
Hispanic Millennials much more likely to turn to mixes
Figure 25: Usage of dessert mixes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
CHANGE IN USAGE
Sixth of consumers baking from scratch more often than a year ago
Figure 26: Change in usage, November 2017
Women notably more likely than men to be using mixes less often
Figure 27: Change in usage, by gender, November 2017
Younger consumers more likely to be using mixes more
Figure 28: Change in usage, by gender, November 2017
Fifth of non-parents not using mixes
Figure 29: Change in usage, by parental status, November 2017
A quarter of Hispanic Millennials using mixes less often or not at all
Figure 30: Change in usage, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
Pie, cupcake mix users turning to store-bought mixes more often
Figure 31: Change in usage, by usage, November 2017
IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTES
Flavor resonates strongly among consumers
Figure 32: Important attributes, November 2017
Premium resonates more with older consumers; price more with younger demographics
Figure 33: Important attributes, by age, November 2017
Natural ingredient claims resonate more with parents of younger children
Figure 34: Important attributes, by presence and age of children, November 2017
Premium quality factors strongly among higher-income groups
Figure 35: Important attributes, by household income, November 2017
Hispanic consumers much more likely to seek natural ingredient claims
Figure 36: Important health-related attributes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
Premium quality, brand impact cupcake mix choice
Figure 37: Important attributes, by usage, November 2017
Top five attributes form a nearly universally popular result
Figure 38: TURF analysis Important attributes, November 2017
REASONS FOR NOT USING MIXES
Nonusers more likely to bake from scratch or opt for ready-to-eat baked goods
Figure 39: Reasons for not using, November 2017
Women, particularly married women, more likely to indicate they bake from scratch rather than use mixes
Figure 40: Reasons for not using, by gender and marital status, November 2017
REASONS FOR USE
Mixes could leverage ease of use and customizability
Figure 41: Reasons for use, November 2017
Ease of use of notable interest to women
Figure 42: Reasons for use, by gender, November 2017
Hispanic consumers notably more likely to share baked goods
Figure 43: Reasons for use of store-bought baking mixes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
PURCHASE INFLUENCE
Familiarity proves a notable influence
Figure 44: Purchase influence, November 2017
Package, equipment concerns resonate among younger consumers
Figure 45: Purchase influence, by age, November 2017
Familiarity less compelling to Hispanic consumers
Figure 46: Purchase influence, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
Trust influences most mix types
Figure 47: Purchase influence, by usage, November 2017
Familiar options opportunity for adding mix-ins
Figure 48: Purchase influence, by important attributes, November 2017
BAKING OPINIONS
Consumers tend to enjoy baking
Figure 49: Baking opinions, November 2017
Women, parents much more likely to enjoy baking
Figure 50: Baking opinions, by gender, November 2017
Figure 51: Baking opinions, by presence and number of children, November 2017
Enjoyment of baking not necessarily associated with a preference for from-scratch baking
Figure 52: Baking opinions, by age, November 2017
Hispanic Millennials much more likely to enjoy baking, to seek recognizable ingredients
Figure 53: Baking opinions, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
NEGATIVE BAKING OPINIONS
Clean-up a deterrent to baking from scratch
Figure 54: Negative baking opinions, November 2017
Clean-up, lack of equipment concerns for younger consumers
Figure 55: Negative baking opinions, by age, November 2017
Clean-up concerns for Hispanic Millennials
Figure 56: Negative baking opinions, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
REPERTOIRE ANALYSIS
Half of consumers use multiple types of baking mixes
Figure 57: Repertoire of usage frequency, November 2017
Younger consumers more likely to use multiple types of mixes
Figure 58: Repertoire of usage frequency, by age, parental status, and number of children in household, November 2017
Mix loyalists more likely to seek quality, and brand; gluten-free users turn to many types of mixes
Figure 59: Important attributes, by repertoire of usage frequency, November 2017
APPENDIX DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations
Abbreviations
APPENDIX THE MARKET
Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 61: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread and cookie mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/french toast/waffle mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of frosting, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking supplies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of other baking mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 68: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 69: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 70: US supermarket sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 71: US sales of baking and dessert mixes through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX KEY PLAYERS
Figure 72: Multi-outlet sales of brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of pancake/french toast/waffle mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of baking supplies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of other baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
APPENDIX THE CONSUMER
Figure 78: Food opinions, by gender, Summer 2017
Figure 79: Food opinions, by age, Summer 2017
Figure 80: Food opinions, by race, Summer 2017
Figure 81: Food opinions, by Hispanic origin, Summer 2017
Figure 82: Food opinions, by household income, Summer 2017
Figure 83: Food opinions, by education, Summer 2017
Figure 84: Food opinions, by number of people in household, Summer 2017
Figure 85: Food opinions, by number of children in household, Summer 2017
Figure 86: Food opinions, by region, Summer 2017
Figure 87: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by gender, Summer 2017
Figure 88: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by age, Summer 2017
Figure 89: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by race, Summer 2017
Figure 90: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by Hispanic origin, Summer 2017
Figure 91: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by household income, Summer 2017
Figure 92: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by education, Summer 2017
Figure 93: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by number of people in household, Summer 2017
Figure 94: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by number of children in household, Summer 2017
Figure 95: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by region, Summer 2017
APPENDIX TURF ANALYSIS BAKING AND DESSERT MIXES FEBRUARY 2018

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