Dark Spirits - US - November 2016

Dark Spirits - US - November 2016

Nov 2016 Mintel Alcoholic BeveragesN/A Price :
$ 3995

Distilled spirits (both white and dark) have enjoyed a significant (23.9%) growth since 2011, due in no small part to the rapid influx of flavors in the white spirit segment and a surge in interest in tequila. Similar flavor innovation is leading to growth in dark spirits, whiskey and brandy in particular, as Millennial consumers appear significantly interested in novel flavors within the category. Curiously, at the same time, authenticity and complexity appear to be key to consumer interest in craft forms of dark spirits.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Sales growth expected to continue through 2021
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dark and white distilled spirits, at current prices, 2011-21
On-premise consumption has room to grow
Figure 2: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, off premise vs. on premise, 2011-16
Price appears insufficient means of differentiation
Figure 3: Spirits value, August 2016
The opportunities
Flavor and complexity could fuel dark spirits
Figure 4: Important dark spirits characteristics, August 2016
Older Millennial interest in variety of dark spirit flavors
Figure 5: Dark spirits flavors, by Millennial generation, August 2016
Craft definition varies
Figure 6: Craft spirits defined, August 2016
What it means

THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Distilled spirit growth to continue
Whiskey leads dark spirit consumption
Potential for on-premise to grow

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Historic and projected sales performance
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dark and white distilled spirits, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of on and off-premise dark and white distilled Spirits, at current prices, 2011-21

MARKET BREAKDOWN
Volume growth to continue, though slower
Figure 9: Total US volume sales and fan chart forecast of dark spirits, in nine-liter cases, 2011-21
Figure 10: Sales of dark spirits, by volume, 2011-21
Whiskey leads segments, with brandy/Cognac growing
Figure 11: Volume Sales of dark spirits, by segment, 2011-21
Whiskey segments continue to grow
Figure 12: Sales of whiskey, by segment, 2011-16
Strong growth for brandy, Cognac, Armagnac to slow
Figure 13: US volume sales of brandy/Cognac/Armagnac, 2011-21

MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Majority of white spirits drinkers also drink dark spirits
Figure 14: White spirits consumption, by dark spirits consumption, August 2016
On-premise consumption has room to grow
Figure 15: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, off premise vs. on premise, 2011-16

MARKET FACTORS
On-premise offerings may influence off-premise selections
Figure 16: Away-from-home new drink trial motivators, by gender, February 2016
Millennial, iGeneration populations have positive growth
Figure 17: Population by generation, percentage change, 2011-21
Hispanic, Asian populations expect to see growth
Figure 18: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Overlap between Millennials, acculturated Hispanics, and parents
Millennials as parents
Figure 19: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
Hispanics as parents
Figure 20: Households with own children, by Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Hispanic Millennials
Figure 21: Generations, by Hispanic origin, 2016

KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Premium offerings impacting leading whiskey brands
Flavor fueling dark rums
Niche attributes benefit brandies
Leveraging production methods to communicate authenticity

LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHISKEY/WHISKY
Jack Daniel’s holds steady, as Maker’s Mark rises
Figure 22: Bourbon, blended whiskey/rye consumption in the last 30 days, by brands, trended 2012-16
Flavor options from Crown Royal
Figure 23: Irish whiskey/Scotch whisky/ Canadian whiskey consumption in the last 30 days, by brands, trended 2012-16

LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS – DARK RUM
Captain leads dark rum, but growth appears stagnant
Figure 24: Dark rum consumption in the last 30 days, by brands, trended 2012-16
Figure 25: Captain Morgain Jack-O’Blast Pumpkin Spiced Rum

LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS – BRANDY
Brandy options leverage premium positioning and added flavors
Figure 26: Brandy consumption in the last 30 days, by brands, trended 2012-16

WHAT’S WORKING?
Hitting the Maker’s Mark
Small batch
Figure 27: Maker’s Mark bourbon whiskey

WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Christian Brothers attempts to counter loss with more flavor
Figure 28: Christian Brothers Apple Brandy
Lack of category focus impacts Seagram’s
Figure 29: Seagram’s Hard Soda

WHAT’S NEXT?
Novel flavors separating dark spirits from the pack
Figure 30: Rebel Yell Root Beer Whiskey
Leveraging production methods
Figure 31: Dark spirit launches leveraging production methods

THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Rum consumption trails other dark spirits
Age related to dark spirit consumption
Rum consumption could leverage on-premise behaviors
Age related to brandy consumption
Dark spirit consumption trails white
Flavor key to dark spirit selection
If interested in a flavored dark spirit, consumers seek spiced and fruit options
Experience influencing Older Millennial consumption
Price and dark spirits
Craft opinion differs by age

DARK SPIRIT CONSUMPTION
Whiskey/whisky consumption leads category
Figure 32: Dark spirits consumption - Any consumption, August 2016
Consumers drink multiple types of Dark spirits
Figure 33: Dark spirits consumption, by dark spirits consumption, August 2016
Income strongly related to dark spirit consumption
Figure 34: Dark spirits consumption, any consumption, by household income, August 2016
Older Millennials drink wide variety of dark spirits
Figure 35: Dark spirits repertoire, August 2016

WHISKEY/WHISKY CONSUMER
American Tennessee whiskey leading whiskey/whisky type
Figure 36: Dark spirits consumption – Whiskey/whisky, August 2016
Whiskey/whisky with soda leading drink form
Figure 37: Whiskey/whisky drink form, August 2016
Figure 38: Whiskey/whisky drink form, by Millennial generations, August 2016

DARK RUM CONSUMER
Spiced rum most popular dark rum type
Figure 39: Dark spirits consumption – Dark rum, August 2016
Soda and dark rum leading drink form
Figure 40: Dark rum drink form, August 2016
Older Millennials drink the greater variety of dark rum drink forms
Figure 41: Dark rum drink form, by Millennial generations, August 2016

BRANDY CONSUMER
Cognac leading brandy type
Figure 42: Dark spirits consumption – Brandy, August 2016
Older Millennials drink brandy with a mixer, in a cocktail
Figure 43: Brandy drink form, by Millennial generations, August 2016

DARK VERSUS WHITE SPIRITS CONSUMPTION
Majority drink more white spirits than dark
Figure 44: Dark versus white spirits consumption, August 2016
Non-fathers drink more dark spirits than white
Figure 45: Dark versus white spirits consumption - More dark spirits than white spirits, by demographics, August 2016

IMPORTANT DARK SPIRITS CHARACTERISTICS
Flavor leading attribute important in dark spirits selection
Figure 46: Important dark spirits characteristics, August 2016
Lower importance in whiskey/whisky mash type, blend, malt
Figure 47: Important dark spirits characteristics – Whiskey/whisky, August 2016
Fathers have greater awareness of dark spirits attributes
Figure 48: Important dark spirits characteristics, by gender and parental status with children under 18 in the household, August 2016

DARK SPIRITS FLAVORS
Drinkers prefer spiced, fruit, unflavored dark spirits
Figure 49: Dark spirits flavors, August 2016
Baby Boomers drive preferences for unflavored dark spirits
Figure 50: Dark spirits flavors – None of the above, I prefer unflavored, by generation, August 2016
Older Millennials interest in variety of dark spirits flavors
Figure 51: Dark spirits flavors, by Millennial generation, August 2016
Fathers stand out for fruit preferences, mothers prefer sweetened, vanilla
Figure 52: Dark spirits flavors, by gender and parental status with child(ren) under 18 in the household, August 2016

SPIRITS BEHAVIORS
Socialization, relaxation leading reasons to drink dark spirits
Figure 53: Spirits behaviors, by dark versus white spirits consumption, August 2016
Older Millennials looking for new experiences
Figure 54: Spirits behaviors, by Millennial generations, August 2016
Parents less likely to drink for socialization, relaxation than non-parents
Figure 55: Spirits behaviors, by gender and parental status with child(ren) under 18 in the household, August 2016

SPIRITS’ VALUE DEFINED
Consumers define value, mid-range, premium, and super-premium prices
Figure 56: Spirits value, August 2016
Millennials drive up price points
Figure 57: Spirits value, by white versus dark spirits consumption - Mostly/only white spirits drinkers, August 2016
Preferred spirits pricing varies with age
Figure 58: Spirits behaviors – Price point preferences, by generation, August 2016
Mid-range, premium priced spirits preferred
Figure 59: Spirits behaviors, by white versus dark spirits consumption, August 2016

CRAFT SPIRITS DEFINED
Craft definition differs with age
Non-Millennials define craft as being made in small batches
Older Millennials driven by premium ingredients
Younger Millennials look for unique qualities
Figure 60: Craft spirits defined, August 2016

APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of on and off-premise dark and white distilled spirits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 62: US volume sales of dark spirits, by segment, 2014 and 2016
Figure 63: Total US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, 2011-21

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