Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Jan 2019 GlobalData Defense and Security111 Pages Price :
$ 1250
Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

"Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023", published by GlobalData, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

With one of the highest annual defense expenditure growth rates in the world, 19.5% in 2018, Ukraine is an attractive defense market. Between 2014 and 2018, the countrys capital expenditure allocation stood at an average of 19% of the total defense budget, and is expected to slightly decline to 18.1% over the forecast period. Overall, Ukraine is projected to spend a total of US$5.1 billion on the acquisition of military hardware between 2019 and 2023.

Scope

- This report offers detailed analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
- In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:
- The Ukrainian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities:list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Ukrainian defense industry.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 8
1.1. What is this Report About? 8
1.2. Definitions 8
1.3. Summary Methodology 10
1.4. About GlobalData 11
2. Executive Summary 12
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 14
3.1. Current Market Scenario 15
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 15
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 18
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 21
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 27
3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 29
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances 30
3.1.7. Ukraines defense expenditure to register a CAGR of 19.53% over 2019-2023 31
3.1.8. Threat from Russia, coupled with threats of protracted insurgency in Donbass, will continue to drive Ukrainian defense expenditure 33
3.1.9. The defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 5% over the forecast period 37
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 39
3.2.1. The majority of Ukraines defense budget is earmarked for revenue expenditure 39
3.2.2. Capital expenditure forecast to increase at a CAGR of 23.61% over 2019-2023 41
3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 43
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 45
3.3.1. Ukrainian homeland security market expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.06% over the forecast period 45
3.3.2. Measures to curb illegal activities such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, and organized crime to drive homeland security expenditure over the forecast period 47
3.3.3. Ukraine is highly affected by terrorism 49
3.3.4. Ukraine faces a high level of threat from terrorist organizations 50
3.3.5. Ukraine has a terrorism index score of 6.6 52
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 53
3.4.1. Ukraine to be one of the largest defense spenders in the Eastern Europe 53
3.4.2. The US has the largest defense expenditure in the world 55
3.4.3. Ukrainian defense expenditure expected to reach 4.4% of GDP by 2023 56
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 57
3.5.1. Top 10 Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2018-2023 57
3.5.2. Transport Aircraft 58
3.5.3. Land-based C4ISR 59
3.5.4. Critical Infrastructure Protection - Physical Security 60
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 61
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 63
4.1.1. A relatively small defense budget limits Ukraines defense imports 63
4.1.2. Canada accounted for 47.4% of Ukrainian defense imports during 2013-2017 64
4.1.3. Armored vehicles accounted for the majority of Ukrainian defense imports 65
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 66
4.2.1. Ukraine exports a major portion of its domestic defense production 66
4.2.2. Russia, China, and Thailand emerged as the largest importers of Ukrainian defense equipment 67
4.2.3. Missiles, sensors and air defense systems were the most exported defense goods 68
5. Industry Dynamics 69
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 69
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low-Medium 70
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: Low 70
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium to High 70
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low to Medium 70
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: High 70
6. Market Entry Strategy 71
6.1. Market Regulation 71
6.1.1. Defense sector liberalization bodes well for domestic defense industry 71
6.2. Market Entry Route 72
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 72
6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 73
6.2.3. Joint development of defense goods provides investors with a market entry opportunity 73
6.2.4. Foreign investors can enter the industry through direct sales 73
6.3. Key Challenges 74
6.3.1. Small defense budget offers equipment manufacturers limited investment potential 74
6.3.2. Lack of necessary infrastructure impedes growth of domestic defense industry 74
6.3.3. Corruption and a lack of transparency discourages investors from entering the market 75
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 76
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 76
7.1.1. Domestic companies fulfill the majority of Ukrainian defense requirements 78
8. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 79
8.1. Key Foreign Companies 79
8.1.1. Raytheon: Overview 79
8.1.2. Raytheon: Products 79
8.1.3. Raytheon: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 80
8.1.4. Raytheon: Alliances 80
8.2. Key Public Companies 81
8.2.1. Antonov ASTC: overview 81
8.2.2. Antonov ASTC: products and services 81
8.2.3. Antonov ASTC: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 82
8.2.4. Antonov ASTC: alliances 83
8.2.5. Antonov ASTC: recent contract wins 83
8.2.6. RPC Fort: overview 84
8.2.7. RPC Fort: products 84
8.2.8. RPC Fort: alliances 85
8.2.9. RPC Fort: recent contract wins 85
8.2.10. KMDB: overview 86
8.2.11. KMDB: products 86
8.2.12. KMDB: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 86
8.2.13. KMDB: recent contract wins 87
8.2.14. Malyshev Plant: overview 88
8.2.15. Malyshev Plant: products 88
8.2.16. Malyshev Plant: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 88
8.2.17. Malyshev Plant: recent contract wins 89
8.2.18. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: overview 90
8.2.19. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: products 90
8.2.20. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 90
8.2.21. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent contract wins 91
8.2.22. Motor Sich: overview 92
8.2.23. Motor Sich: products and services 92
8.2.24. Motor Sich: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 94
8.2.25. Motor Sich: alliances 94
8.2.26. Motor Sich: recent contract wins 95
9. Business Environment and Country Risk 96
9.1. Economic Performance 96
9.1.1. GDP Per Capita 96
9.1.2. GDP, Current Prices 97
9.1.3. Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion) 98
9.1.4. Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion) 99
9.1.5. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar 100
9.1.6. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 101
9.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 102
9.1.8. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP 103
9.1.9. Goods exports as a Percentage of GDP 104
9.1.10. Goods imports as a Percentage of GDP 105
9.1.11. Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP 106
9.1.12. Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP 107
9.1.13. Foreign Direct Investment 108
9.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 109
9.1.15. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn) 110
10. Appendix 111
10.1. About GlobalData 111
10.2. Disclaimer 111

List of Tables
Table 1: Ukrainian - Army Strength 21
Table 2: Ukrainian - Air Force Strength 24
Table 3: Ukrainian - Navy Strength 25
Table 4: Ukrainian - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs, 2018 27
Table 5: Ukrainian - Future Procurement Programs, 2018 27
Table 6: Ukrainian Top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 28
Table 7: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 31
Table 8: Ukrainian State Procurement of New and Refurbished Weapons and Military Equipment 2014-2017 35
Table 9: Ukrainian Restoration and Repairs of Basic Weapons and Military Equipment in Number of Items 2015-2017 36
Table 10: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 37
Table 11: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 39
Table 12: Ukrainian Defense Capital Expenditure, (UAH Million & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 41
Table 13: Ukrainian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 43
Table 14: Ukrainian Homeland Security Expenditure, (UAH Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 45
Table 15: Terrorism Index, 2018 50
Table 16: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 53
Table 17: Top Ukrainian Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 57
Table 18: Ukrainian Budget Formation Timetable 72
Table 19: Top Defense Suppliers in the Ukrainian Defense Industry By Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 77
Table 20: Raytheon - Products 79
Table 21: Raytheon - Alliances 80

List of Figures
Figure 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2014-2023 32
Figure 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 32
Figure 3: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 38
Figure 4: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 40
Figure 5: Ukrainian Capital Budget Allocation (UAH Billion), 2014-2023 42
Figure 6: Ukrainian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 42
Figure 7: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 44
Figure 8: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH Billion), 2014-2023 46
Figure 9: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2014-2023 46
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 49
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 52
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 54
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 55
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 56
Figure 15: Ukraines Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 58
Figure 16: Ukraines Land Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 59
Figure 17: Ukraines Physical Security Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 60
Figure 18: Top Ukrainian Defense Procurements in Terms of Their Supplier Relationships 62
Figure 19 : Ukrainian Arms Imports by Country, 2013-2017 64
Figure 20: Ukrainian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 65
Figure 21 : Ukrainian Defense Exports TIV Value (US$ million), 2013-2017 66
Figure 22 : Ukrainian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2013-2017 67
Figure 23 : Ukrainian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2013-2017 68
Figure 24: Industry Dynamics - Porters Five Forces Analysis 69
Figure 25: Ukrainian GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025 96
Figure 26: Ukrainian GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 97
Figure 27: Ukrainian Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 98
Figure 28: Ukrainian Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 99
Figure 29: Local Currency per US$, 2015-2024 100
Figure 30: Ukrainian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 101
Figure 31: Ukrainian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 102
Figure 32: Ukrainian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 103
Figure 33: Ukrainian Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 104
Figure 34: Ukrainian Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 105
Figure 35: Ukrainian Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 106
Figure 36: Ukrainian Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 107
Figure 37: Ukrainian Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), 2005-2014 108
Figure 38: Ukrainian Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 109
Figure 39: Ukrainian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn), 2005-2014 110

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