ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES-US-APRIL 2018

ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES-US-APRIL 2018

Apr 2018 Mintel Ice CreamN/A Price :
$ 4395

While consumers strive to live healthier lifestyles, strong engagement in the category suggests that there is still room for indulgence. Yet, the ice cream and frozen novelties category attained modest dollar sales growth from 2016-17 while unit volume slowed, indicating that increased consumption frequency is critical to growing the category. A challenge to the category is the abundance of sweets that can satisfy indulgent cravings yet can offer more portability or spontaneity. Larger segments (ice cream and frozen novelties), particularly decadent products that seem synonymous with premium, carry the category, while frozen yogurts struggle. This suggests that the key to balancing consumer desire for indulgence and healthier qualities is not just about less (fat or calories) but also sometimes about real.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Modest dollar sales growth amid declining volume sales
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Strong, yet slower participation
Figure 2: Frozen treat purchase, February 2018
Consumers have established favorites
Figure 3: Frozen treat behaviors, consumption frequency and brand and flavor loyalty, February 2018
The opportunities
Young adults, parents are core consumers of frozen treats
Figure 4: Frozen treat purchase, by age and parental status, February 2018
Decadence equates to premium
Figure 5: Frozen treat attitudes, premium and indulgent options, February 2018
Consumers seeking healthy indulgence on their terms
Figure 6: Frozen treat attitudes, taste and health, February 2018
Continue to engage consumers with innovation that excites
Figure 7: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, February 2018
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dollar sales grow, unit volume struggle
Most sales come from ice cream, frozen novelties
Adjacent categories, foodservice sources of competition and inspiration
Health issues a cause for concern
Parents a strong target
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category sales surpass $13 billion in 2017
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Ice cream and frozen novelties dominate the category
Figure 10: Total US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Multi-outlet unit sales fall in all segments
Figure 12: Multi-outlet volume sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2012-17
Most sales in category come from supermarkets
Figure 13: Total US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Consumers treat themselves with snacks
Figure 14: Snacking motivations, March 2017
Other sweets deliver on indulgence, portability
Figure 15: Total US sales of selected food categories, at current prices, 2015-17
Foodservice offers inspiration, opportunity
Figure 16: Ice cream and frozen desserts/ice cream treats, select menu item claims, by menu incidence change, Q4 2015-17
Figure 17: Ice cream and frozen desserts/ice cream treats, select flavors of ingredient, by menu incidence change, Q4 2015-17
MARKET FACTORS
Health issues in America continue to rise
Figure 18: Growth in health issues in the US, obesity and diabetes, 2013-15
Children, teens influential in category
Figure 19: Food – Snack/dessert: ice cream – Child eats and ice cream toppings – Child uses
Figure 20: Food – Snack/dessert: ice cream – Teen eats and ice cream toppings – Teen uses
Core consumers impacted by important milestones
Figure 21: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2017
Declining household size forecast to recover
Figure 22: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Top companies lose share to smaller category players
Indulgence, premiumization play well in category
Internationally inspired, dairy-free innovation
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES
Unilever and Nestlé continue dominance in category
Massive growth for Eden Creamery and Blue Bell Creameries
Private label share continues to shrink, “other” brands show growth
Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Decadence, quality drive sales
Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, and sherbet/sorbet/ices, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Reducing guilt
Figure 28: Halo Top TV advertisement – “My Territory”
Figure 29: Arctic Zero TV advertisement – “Get Your Dessert On”
Figure 30: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food, eating sweets – Any agree
Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, low/no/reduced sugar, calories, or fat, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 32: Purchase intelligence of ice cream and frozen novelties, by presence or lack of claims, low/no/reduced fat, low/no/reduced sugar, low/no/reduced calories, January 2017-February 2018
Increasing transparency
Figure 33: Outshined Fruit Bars TV advertisement – “Choose Outshine”
Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, low/no/reduced sugar, calories, or fat, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 35: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by claims, low/no reduced allergen, gluten-free, GMO-free, and hormone-free, 2014-17
Smaller portions
Figure 36: Blue Bunny TV Advertisement – “In the House”
Figure 37: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, pint or snack size, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 38: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, cups/tubs, by total pack size, 2014-17
Social media inspires passion for frozen treat brands
Figure 39: Average passion scores, by select ice cream brands, March 2017-18
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Declining sub-segments suffer from lack of innovation, indulgence
Figure 40: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, ice milk/frozen dairy desserts, and ice pop novelties, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 41: Launches of frozen yogurt, ice pops, and complete desserts, 2014-17
Figure 42: Purchase intelligence of select frozen yogurt, ice pop, and ice milk/frozen dairy products, January 2017-February 2018
Store brands struggle to stand out
Figure 43: Multi-outlet sales of private label ice cream and frozen novelties, by segments, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 44: Purchase intent of select private label products
WHAT’S NEXT?
Dairy-free options
Figure 45: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by dairy-free, 2014-17
Global inspiration
Figure 46: My/Mo online video – “Ripe Strawberry MyMo Mochi Ice Cream”
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Ice cream enjoys nearly universal penetration
Consumers stick to what they know, enjoy best
Premium and decadence go hand-in-hand
BFY options offer less guilt, less taste
Widespread interest in category innovation
FROZEN TREAT PURCHASE
Most consumers indulge with ice cream
Figure 47: Frozen treat purchase, February 2018
Habits don’t limit participation
Figure 48: Repertoire of frozen treat purchase, February 2018
Room to increase consumption frequency
Figure 49: Frozen treat purchase frequency, February 2018
Younger consumers buy across products
Figure 50: Frozen treat purchase, by age, February 2018
Children influence parents’ diverse selections
Figure 51: Frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2018
Large households enjoy portioned options
Figure 52: Frozen treat purchase, by household size, February 2018
FROZEN TREAT BEHAVIORS
Category participants grounded in tradition
Figure 53: Frozen treat behaviors, February 2018
Figure 54: Frozen treat behaviors, by frozen treat behaviors, total and eat them once a week, February 2018
Older consumers loyal, younger consumers still experimental
Figure 55: Frozen treat behaviors, by gender and age, February 2018
Parents seek variety
Figure 56: Frozen treat behaviors, by parental status, February 2018
EMOTIONAL CONNECTION TO FROZEN TREATS
Despite seasonality, emotional connections occur year-round
Figure 57: Emotional connection to frozen treats, February 2018
Heavy users seek variety with consistency, emotions drive impulse purchases
Figure 58: Frozen treat behaviors, by emotional connection to frozen treats, eat them the same amount year-round and eat them more during emotional low/high points, February 2018
Men more consistent in consumption of frozen treats
Figure 59: Emotional connection to frozen treats, by gender, February 2018
Younger generations emotional, nostalgic about frozen treats
Figure 60: Emotional connection to frozen treats, by generation, February 2018
FROZEN TREAT ATTRIBUTES
Clear overlaps between decadence and quality, healthfulness and permissibility
Figure 61: Correspondence analysis – Frozen treat attributes, February 2018
Figure 62: Frozen treat attributes, February 2018
Restaurant brands appeal to younger consumers
Figure 63: Frozen treat attributes, restaurant brand, by age, February 2018
Packaging is paramount for parents
Figure 64: Frozen treat attributes, high-quality packaging and small packaging size, by age, February 2018
FROZEN TREAT ATTITUDES
Frozen novelty format ideal for snacking
Figure 65: Frozen treat attitudes, February 2018
High-quality, decadent frozen treats tempting to younger men
Figure 66: Frozen treat attitudes, by gender and age, February 2018
Parents enjoy convenient, premium, and indulgent options
Figure 67: Frozen treat attitudes, by parental status, February 2018
FROZEN TREAT INNOVATION
Significant interest in category innovation
Figure 68: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, February 2018
Figure 69: Frozen treat innovation, by frozen treat types, February 2018
Younger consumers, parents interested across innovation features
Figure 70: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by generation, February 2018
Figure 71: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by parental status, February 2018
Hispanics and Asian consumers want variety
Figure 72: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 75: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, by type, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 81: Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by type, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, ices, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 86: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
Figure 87: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 88: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 89: US convenience store sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 90: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 91: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 92: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 93: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy desserts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 94: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet, sorbet, ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017

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