RESIDENTIAL CARE FOR THE ELDERLY - UK - AUGUST 2018

RESIDENTIAL CARE FOR THE ELDERLY - UK - AUGUST 2018

Aug 2018 Mintel 3DN/A Price :
$ 2019

Alongside restrictive operating margins, care homes face an ongoing challenge to recruit and retain staff, with many operators reporting that they are increasingly competing with other low-pay sectors, such as supermarkets, who are actively recruiting and offering attractive pay rates

Table of contents
OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Market value reaches high in 2018 but growth slows
Figure 1: UK residential care market, by value, 2014-18, (£ million)
Old age support ratio to continue to decline
Figure 2: Old age support ratio, 2018-43, (ratio)
Market value to rise by 7% to 2023
Figure 3: Forecast UK residential care market value, 2018/19-2022/23, (£ million at 2018 prices)
Companies and brands
The consumer
68% of people have not thought about how they would fund their long-term care
Figure 4: Residential care payment plans, April 2018, (% of respondents)
Nearly a third put performance rating as most important factor behind choice of home
Nearly three-quarters believe that CCTV camera installation would stop negative treatment of residents
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Green paper delay leading to uncertainty
The facts
The implications
Provider insolvencies and poor quality of care in homes adding to industry pressures
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Market value reaches high in 2018 but growth slows
Local authority expenditure
Market value to rise by 7% to 2023
MARKET SIZE
Market value reaches high in 2018 but growth slows
Figure 5: UK residential care market, by value, 2014-18, (£ million)
Figure 6: UK residential care market, by number of registered care homes, 2014-18, (units)
Figure 7: UK residential care market, by number of registered places, 2014-18, (000)
Shortage in care home places is starting to arise
Trend towards larger homes
Figure 8: Average number of places, revenue per care home and revenue per place, UK, 2014-18, (average number of places, revenue in £000)
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Accommodation type
Figure 9: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of accommodation, 2014-18, (number of homes, sheltered housing in 000 units)
Care purchaser
Figure 10: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of purchaser, 2014-18, (£ million)
Provider type
Figure 11: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of provider, 2014-18, (£ million)
Local authority expenditure
Figure 12: Segmentation of local authority-commissioned residential and nursing care expenditure, by provider and client type, 2014-18, (£ million)
Figure 13: Segmentation of local authority-commissioned residential and nursing care expenditure, by provider and service type, 2014-18, (£ million)
Older people (65+) expenditure
Figure 14: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for older people (65+), by service type, 2014-18, (£ million)
Adults aged 18-64 expenditure
Figure 15: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for adults aged 18-64, by service type, 2014-18, (£ million)
NHS Care Expenditure
Figure 16: Segmentation of NHS expenditure on residential and nursing care, by provider type, 2014-18, (£ million)
Private care purchasers
Figure 17: Private expenditure on residential and nursing care, 2014-18, (£ million and % market share)
Sheltered housing
Figure 18: The development of sheltered housing in the UK, 2014-18, (000 units and % change)
Extra care housing
MARKET FORECAST
Market value to rise by 7% to 2023
Figure 19: Forecast segmentation of the UK residential and nursing care market, by type of purchaser, 2019-2023, (£ million)
Shortfall in number of homes and beds expected
Technology use could free-up carer time and reduce costs
MARKET TRENDS
Old age support ratio to continue to decline
Figure 20: UK population projections, by age group, 2018-43, (000 people)
Care worker and manager turnover rates rise although average wages have generally improved
Figure 21: Annual workforce turnover rates in the adult residential care sector, England, 2016-17, by employee position, (%)
Figure 22: Average annual pay in the adult residential care sector, England, 2016-17, by employee position, (£)
Home care accounts for majority of social care’s delays in transfer of care from NHS hospitals, but residential and nursing care figures also remain high
Cost of the average care home residency has reached a record high
Occupancy rates reach 11-year high
MARKET DRIVERS
The ageing population and changes to the pension system will affect the industry’s operating model
Staff costs continue to rise due to the increased NLW and NMW rate, but U-turn over ‘sleep-in’ back pay has provided temporary relief
Implications of Brexit
LEGISLATION
Care Standards Act
Regulation and Inspection of Social Care (Wales) Act
The Carers (Scotland) Act
The Care Act 2014 and Better Care Fund
CQC and Market Oversight
Pensions Act
Other legislation
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Anchor and Hanover plan to merge to become the largest provider of care for older people in England
Providers are choosing to construct high-quality homes and retirement villages that target the growing self-funder market
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Industry development
M&As and other industry movements
Market share
Changes in the Structure of the Industry
Figure 23: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the ‘residential nursing care activities’ industry, 2013-17, (number of local units and businesses)
Figure 24: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the ‘residential care activities for the elderly and disabled’ industry, 2013-17, (number of local units and businesses)
Figure 25: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the hospital activities - medical nursing home activities industry, 2013-17, (number of outlets and businesses)
Structure by employment
Figure 26: Analysis of the employment structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2016-17, (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
Figure 27: Analysis of the employment structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled industry, 2016-17, (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
Figure 28: Analysis of the employment structure of the hospital activities - medical nursing home activities industry, 2016-17, (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
Structure by turnover
Figure 29: Analysis of the Financial Structure of the Residential Nursing Care Activities Industry, 2016-2017, (£ 000 and % of Total Turnover)
Figure 30: Analysis of the financial structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled industry, 2016-17, (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
Figure 31: Analysis of the financial structure of the hospital activities - medical nursing home activities industry, 2016-17, (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES
Anchor and Hanover plan to merge to become the largest provider of care for older people in England
Providers are choosing to construct high-quality homes and retirement villages that target the growing self-funder market
Digitising operational processes could lead to much needed cost savings and improve service provision
COMPANY PROFILES
Abbeyfield Society
Recent company activity
Financial information
Figure 32: Financial analysis of Abbeyfield Society, 2013-17, (£ million)
Barchester Healthcare
Recent company activity
Financial information
Figure 33: Financial analysis of Barchester Healthcare, 2012-16, (£000)
Four Seasons Healthcare
Recent company activity
Financial information
Figure 34: Financial analysis of Four Seasons Health Care, 2013-17, (£ million)
HC-One
Recent company activity
Financial information
Figure 35: Financial analysis of HC-One, 2013-17, (£ million)
Housing & Care 21
Recent company activity
Financial information
Figure 36: Financial analysis of Housing & Care 21, 2013-17, (£ million)
Sanctuary Care
Recent company activity
Financial information
Figure 37: Financial analysis of Sanctuary Care, 2013-17, (£ million)
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
68% of people have not thought about how they would fund their long-term care
Nearly a third put performance rating as most important factor behind choice of home
Nearly three-quarters believe that CCTV camera installation would stop negative treatment of residents
CARE PAYMENT
68% of people have not thought about how they would fund their long-term care
Figure 38: Residential care payment plans, April 2018, (% of respondents)
Half of women over-65 have considered the financial consequences of care compared to less than a third of men over 65
Figure 39: Residential care payment plans, by age and gender, April 2018, (% of respondents)
Personal savings expected to fund long-term care
Figure 40: Residential care payment method, April 2018, (% of respondents)
CHOOSING A CARE HOME
Nearly a third put performance rating as most important factor behind choice of home
Figure 41: Residential Care Home Choice Factors, by Rank of Importance, April 2018, (% of Respondents)
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
Reviews and open days are most useful guides in selecting a home
Figure 42: Residential care home information sources, by rank of importance, April 2018, (% of respondents)
CARE HOME OPINION
Nearly three-quarters believe that CCTV camera installation would stop negative treatment of residents
Figure 43: Residential care home opinion, April 2018, (% of respondents)
Women have stronger opinion on CCTV in homes and higher guilt about moving a family member into a home
Figure 44: Residential care home opinion, by gender, April 2018, (% of respondents)
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Methodology
FURTHER SOURCES AND CONTACTS
Trade associations
Trade magazines
Trade events

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