White Spirits - US - October 2016

White Spirits - US - October 2016

Nov 2016 Mintel Alcoholic BeveragesN/A Price :
$ 3995

The white spirits category is poised for continued modest growth sustained by vodka and propelled by growing interest in the complexities of tequila. Opportunity to grow the category can be leveraged by cross category consumption.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Slow growth of white spirits continues
Figure 1: US volume sales of white spirits, 2011-21
Dark spirits gain traction
Figure 2: US volume sales of dark spirits, 2012 – 2016
Off-premise consumption tops on-premise
Figure 3: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, off premise vs. on premise, 2011-16
Millennials drive on-premise consumption
Figure 4: On-premise alcohol consumption frequency, at least weekly, by generation, February 2016
Tequila, vodka buoy other white spirits
Figure 5: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2011-21
The opportunities
Leverage cross category consumption
Figure 6: White spirits consumption, by white spirits consumption, August 2016
On-premise shows potential
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of on-premise alcohol at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2010-20
Keep your eye on Millennials, but don’t forget others
Figure 9: Median household income, by age of householder, 2014
What it means

THE MARKET - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Distilled spirits aren’t still
Tequila is shaking up the category, vodka chills out
Off-premise is the (not so) new nightclub
Dark competition grows

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Historic and projected sales performance
Figure 10: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of distilled spirits, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of on and off-premise Distilled Spirits, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of on and off-premise distilled spirits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21

MARKET BREAKDOWN
White spirits tread water
Figure 13: US volume sales of white spirits, by segment, at current prices, 2016
Tequila well poised for category growth
Figure 14: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2011-21
Figure 15: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2011-21
Vodka continues it reign
Rum brands slipping
Gin continues to struggle

MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Beer, wine consumption dominate the alcoholic beverage occasion
Figure 16: Any alcohol consumption, October 2015
Majority of white spirits drinkers also drink dark spirits
Figure 17: Dark spirits consumption, by white spirits consumption, August 2016
On-premise consumption has room to grow
Figure 18: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, off premise vs. on premise, 2011-16
Location matters
Figure 19: Consumption location of liquor, September 2016

MARKET FACTORS
Consumer confidence
Figure 20: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-May 2016
Millennial, iGeneration populations have positive growth
Figure 21: Population by generation, percentage change, 2011-21
Hispanic, Asian populations expect to see growth
Figure 22: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21

KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Premium continues to drive innovation and the market
White spirits get crafty

LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS
Flavor stirs interest in vodka
Rum brands on the rocks
Tequila is for everyone
Value gins struggle
Figure 23: Top menued liquors at restaurants, Q4 2012-Q4 2015

WHAT’S WORKING?
Innovation with real flavors, ingredients
Craft and small batch
Whimsical bottle design
Flavors and fun drive growth
Focus on legacy and heritage
Super premium offers bright spot in struggling segment

WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Big brands
Gin
Rum

WHAT’S NEXT?
Cocktail kits
Beverage blurring
Mezcal

THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Vodkas versatility aids category leadership
White spirits drinkers stock the bar
Tequila makes a run for rum
Consumers indulge in vodka weekly
Unflavored consumed more frequently than flavored
Millennials are core white spirits drinkers

WHITE SPIRITS CROSS-CONSUMPTION
Tequilas, gins nearing vodka, white/light rum consumption levels
Figure 24: White spirits consumption - Any consumption, August 2016
Consumers drink multiple types of white spirits
Figure 25: White spirits consumption, by white spirits consumption, August 2016
Older Millennials consume most types of white spirits
Figure 26: White spirits repertoire, August 2016

VODKA CONSUMER
Unflavored vodka consumed more frequently than flavored
Figure 27: White spirits consumption - Vodka, August 2016
Men, Millennials, Hispanics over index for vodka consumption
Figure 28: Vodka consumption - Any consumption/at least monthly, by demographics – primary consumers, August 2016
Opportunity to increase relevancy among women, non-Millennial, Blacks, Asians
Figure 29: Vodka consumption - Any consumption, by demographics – secondary consumers, August 2016
Income drives greater consumption among younger adults
Figure 30: Vodka consumption - Any consumption, by age and household income, August 2016
Vodka with juice leading drink form
Figure 31: Vodka drink form, August 2016
Young Millennials stand out for unadulterated drink forms
Figure 32: Vodka drink form, by Millennial generations, August 2016

WHITE/LIGHT RUM CONSUMER
Unflavored, flavored rum consumed at similar rates
Figure 33: White spirits consumption – White/light rum, August 2016
Men, Millennials, Hispanics core white/light rum drinkers
Figure 34: White/light rum consumption - Any consumption/at least monthly, by demographics – primary consumers, August 2016
Opportunity to increase relevancy among women, non-Millennials, Blacks, Asians
Figure 35: White/light rum consumption - Any consumption/at least monthly, by demographics – Secondary consumers, August 2016
Income level affects younger consumers white/light rum consumption
Figure 36: White/light rum consumption - Any consumption, by age and household income, August 2016
Soda and white/light rum leading drink form
Figure 37: White/light rum drink form, August 2016
Figure 38: White/light rum drink form, by Millennial and non-Millennial generations, August 2016

TEQUILA CONSUMER
One in five drink each tequila type at least monthly
Figure 39: White spirits consumption – Tequila, August 2016
Older Millennials, Hispanics strongest tequila drinkers
Figure 40: Tequila consumption - Any consumption/at least monthly, by demographics – primary consumers, August 2016
Opportunity to increase consumption among women, Asians
Figure 41: Tequila consumption -- Any consumption/at least monthly, by demographics – secondary consumers, August 2016
Income level significantly impacts tequila consumption among those 22-54
Figure 42: Tequila consumption - Any consumption, by age and household income, August 2016
In a shot, a made-from-scratch cocktail top tequila drink forms
Figure 43: Tequila drink form, August 2016
Older consumers drink tequila in a cocktail
Figure 44: Tequila drink form, by Millennial generations, August 2016

GIN CONSUMER
One in five drink gin at least monthly
Figure 45: White spirits consumption – Gin, August 2016
Older Millennials are core gin drinkers
Figure 46: Gin consumption - Any consumption/at least monthly, by demographics – primary consumers, August 2016
Opportunity to reach women, Blacks, Asians
Figure 47: Gin consumption -- Any consumption/at least monthly, by demographics – secondary consumers, August 2016
Higher-income level encourages greater gin consumption
Figure 48: Gin consumption -- Any consumption, by age and household income, August 2016
Gin and juice leading drink form
Figure 49: Gin drink form, August 2016

WHITE VERSUS DARK SPIRITS CONSUMPTION
Majority drink more white spirits than dark
Figure 50: White versus dark spirits consumption, August 2016
Older Millennials, parents consume more white spirits than dark
Figure 51: White versus dark spirits consumption -- More white spirits than dark spirits, by demographics, August 2016

IMPORTANT WHITE SPIRITS CHARACTERISTICS
Flavor leading attribute important in white spirits selection
Figure 52: Important white spirits characteristics, August 2016
Flavor greater influence on women than men
Figure 53: Important white spirits characteristics, by gender, August 2016
Older Millennials influenced by niche attributes
Figure 54: Important white spirits characteristics, by Millennial generation, August 2016

WHITE SPIRITS FLAVORS
Greatest interest in fruit flavored white spirits, opportunity with aging
Figure 55: White spirits flavors, August 2016
Older consumers prefer unflavored white spirits
Figure 56: White spirits flavors – None of the above, I prefer unflavored, by Millennial generation, August 2016
Older Millennials most open to niche, unique flavors
Figure 57: White spirits flavors, by Millennial generation, August 2016
Mothers over index for fruit flavors, fathers prefer aged
Figure 58: White spirits flavors, by gender and parental status with child(ren) under 18 in the household, August 2016

SPIRITS BEHAVIORS
Socialization, relaxation leading reasons to drink white spirits
Experience is All
Return to the Experts
Figure 59: Spirits behaviors, by white versus dark spirits consumption, August 2016
Older Millennials looking for new experiences
Figure 60: Spirits behaviors, by Millennial generations, August 2016
Parents less likely to drink for socialization, relaxation than non-parents
Figure 61: Spirits behaviors, by gender and parental status with child(ren) under 18 in the household, August 2016

SPIRITS’ VALUE DEFINED
Consumers define value, mid-range, premium, and super-premium prices
Figure 62: Spirits value, August 2016
Millennials drive up price points
Figure 63: Spirits value, by white versus dark spirits consumption -- Mostly/only white spirits drinkers, August 2016
Preferred spirits pricing varies with age
Figure 64: Spirits behaviors – Price point preferences, by generation, August 2016
Mid-range, premium-priced spirits preferred
Figure 65: Spirits behaviors, by white versus dark spirits consumption, August 2016

CRAFT SPIRITS DEFINED
Craft definition differs with age
Non-Millennials define craft as being made in small batches
Older Millennials driven by premium ingredients
Younger Millennials look for unique qualities
Figure 66: Craft spirits defined, August 2016

APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 67: Total US sales and forecast of on and off-premise Distilled Spirits at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 68: Total US sales and forecast of on and off-premise Distilled Spirits, at inflated prices, 2011-21
Figure 69: US volume sales of white spirits, 2011-21
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel
Source: The Beverage Information & Insights Group, Liquor Handbook 2016/Mintel

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